Clarity in Crypto’s Minefield of Misinformation

The current price of XRP is just over US$3.00. There are currently about 100B XRP tokens in existence, with approximately 59B of those in circulation. That means that at a US$100,000 price, the fully diluted market capitalization of XRP would be $10 quadrillion. The entire world’s global nominal GDP is estimated at $110-120 trillion which would make XRP worth approximately 85X the entire world’s GDP. Absurd doesn’t begin to describe the initial claim. 

And yet these types of predictions are everywhere in crypto. Influencers commonly provide price targets that are either unrealistic or insane. There are tens of thousands of such influencers (note that I do not describe them as analysts). Further complicating matters, and as a result of the confrontational nature of some global regulators towards digital assets and blockchain technology, there are also plenty of pseudonymous voices. This opens an avenue for more bad actors to build followings without accountability.  

Golden Pear often provides learning sessions to people interested in digital assets and blockchain technology. One of the most common questions at the end is, how can we continue to stay on top of what is going on in crypto? The fact is that there are no good books, traditional media is woefully uninformed and the mediums that provide the best access to good quality information, also typically provide some of the worst.  

In this article, we will try to provide several ways to learn more about the chains, protocols and developments in crypto. We will try to show great sources of on-chain information, research sites, communities of builders and analysts, and video content. These are good quality sources although the quality can deteriorate or generate a bias over time, so remain vigilant in the information you consume and try to cross reference pieces of information.  

First things first – blockchains are transparent, so doing your own research or using sources that plug in to chains directly are the purest sources of information. Establishing an understanding of even basic information is essential before buying anything: 

• Average 24hr volume 

• Total supply 

• Circulating supply 

• Fully diluted value 

• Unlock schedules 

• Protocol whitepaper and other documents 

• Security audits 

• Understanding the team and investors 

Much of the above data can be sourced from Coinmarketcap.com or Coingecko.com, including links to the protocol’s website and documents which should include whitepapers and security audits.  

Another great source of information is, quite obviously, the chain itself. Blockchain explorers like Etherscan contain information on each transaction and contract address. Although learning to understand them can take some time, they are rich in data and can be used to great effect in research. There are blockchain explorers for every single major blockchain and most are similar in terms of how to read them. 

Transactions and contract addresses can also be built into viewers that help contextualize information. For instance, wallet profilers like Octav (which can show P&Ls) and Debank and Intelligence engines like Arkham are also powerful tools. The latter, for instance, can be used to look at who holds tokens and what they are doing with them (staking vs. selling, for instance). Many of these accounts are also listed with identities. For instance if you are interested in looking at known wallets holding US Government assets, look here.  

Lastly in this category, tools like Defi Llama, Token Terminal and Dune Analytics are fantastic for seeing what is going on with specific protocols. These sites allow you to observe deposits, fees generated, number of users, insider wallets, and much more. They are also broken down by category so it is easy to quickly establish leaders in specific areas. 

News 

For topical daily news, there are a few sites which tend to be quite reactive and are able to produce decent journalism on crypto matters. However, the topics primarily cover only the most impactful news and are less useful for understanding trends and narratives. The What’s Going On section below goes into depth in that vertical. Here are a few news sites that are good quality: 

• CoinDesk 

• CoinTelegraph 

• The Block 

• Blockworks 

Research Services 

There are a number of research services which provide good information about digital asset markets. Most of these are paid services and they are roughly grouped into two key categories; technical analysis (or on-chain market intelligence) and fundamental analysis. For technical analysis, especially but not singularly on Bitcoin, Glassnode is a good engine and has a rich set of unique data that can be used, some for free and some which is paid. Long-time crypto analyst Ben Cowen also has a good site, Into The Cryptoverse that has a lot of his own proprietary data and indicators. K33 is a good service that is more dispassionate about the technology and sticks to good indicators and makes data-based conclusions.  

For more fundamental analysis on different projects and trends, there are quite a few good services. These are all paid but considering the amount some investors have at risk, the annual fees are not large. There are a few issues to be aware of, however. First, some of these research houses do tend to take fees for research. Although they claim impartiality, there have been issues raised regarding perceived conflicts in the past. Furthermore, some may have media or investing businesses running in parallel or have principles who themselves are significant angel investors. These disclosures are typically made publicly, but insinuations and accusations have been made from the community in the past about the degree of influence some of those investments or revenue sources have upon their research. Be forewarned.  

Here is a list of research services which delve deeply, using very smart, capable analysts, into the highest profile and most interesting protocols and trends: 

• Galaxy Digital Research 

• Delphi Digital 

• Blockworks 

• Messari 

• A16Z Crypto  

Podcasts  

A great way to gain a lot of in-depth insight in crypto is through podcasts. There are lots of experts who delve into how protocols work, what is new and exciting, headlines, and trends. However, as we discussed at the opening of the article, there are multitudes more terrible sources of information created by ill-informed or even bad actors. Understanding which is which is important.  

Furthermore, many content creators in the space have a bias. Some are quite explicit (Bankless is unashamedly pro-ETH, for instance) while others hide their bias for what ecosystems or communities they back or are invested in. Most have disclosure pages listing investments that can be accessed but that may not always be front of mind when consuming the content.  

Below is a list of high-quality podcasts, what type of information they cover, and any known or suggested bias they may have. We have veered towards listing the Youtube site, however, most are available on multiple platforms.  

What’s Going On in the Crypto Community?  

To truly understand what is happening in crypto at any given moment in time, and to understand what the community of builders and investors are discussing, X (formerly Twitter), is the place to be. It is an essential tool in understanding trends, monitoring innovation, and evaluating investor’s theses and approach. However, it is also manic and full of both fantastic insight and wicked disinformation. There are hundreds of contributors that post decent quality information.  

Some of these accounts are Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs). KOLs are accounts that are influential and can move markets and drive sentiment. Their views can be influenced by their positions, which may or may not be publicly known. Often they provide good insight but balancing several views against one another usually is some semblance of the truth.  

Below are a few accounts that generally, currently post good quality information and represent a taste of different kinds of accounts that offer good insight from different perspectives.  

• Vitalik Buterin 

• Anatoly Yakovenko 

• Michael Saylor 

• Brian Armstrong 

• Erik Voorhees 

• Cobie 

• Raoul Pal 

• Benjamin Cowen 

• Willy Woo 

• Watcher Guru 

• SmallCap Scientist 

• DCF God 

• Tom Lee 

• The Blockchain Association 

• Paul Grewal 

Last but not least, for the uninitiated, almost the only way to truly learn about the technology and asset class is to have someone hold your hand and explain things from a first principles basis. A good guide can help provide a baseline of knowledge that can be built upon. Golden Pear provides free “Crypto 101” sessions that are approximately 90m long for investing audiences. If you would like to discuss receiving one of these sessions, please click here.  

As with any industry and asset class, there is a multitude of voices. Also as with other technologies and asset classes, good information is essential to being a well-informed investor. For investors that want to invest any further afield in digital assets than the majors (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana), it is essential to learn and understand how the technologies are progressing. Hopefully, this article gives you a place to start so that time you hear someone saying XRP is going to $100,000 you will be able to gauge the reliability of their claims.  

Disclaimer:

This article is for general informational purposes only. Any commentary and information contained in this article should not be considered as financial or investment advice, and is not intended to provide legal, accounting, or tax advice. This article may contain the opinions, views or recommendations of individuals or organizations. These opinions and views are provided for your general interest only and are not endorsed by Golden Pear Capital Ltd., Golden Pear Digital (BVI) Ltd. or affiliates, from hereon, referred to as "Golden Pear".  Every effort has been made to ensure that the material contained in this article is accurate at the time of publication. However, Golden Pear cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no responsibility for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Facts and data provided by Golden Pear and other sources are believed to be reliable when posted. Golden Pear cannot guarantee that they are accurate or complete or that they will be current at all times. Any information, including performance data available through any third party provider is not guaranteed to be current, accurate or complete and is subject to change without notice. Performance data represents past performance and is not indicative of future performance. There may be inherent conflicts of interest included in the article as a result of the Golden Pear involvement in the digital asset industry.